Aiming at the importance of target acquisition probability in missile weapon system design, test and evaluation, operational effectiveness evaluation, a simulation calculation method of anti-ship missile target acquisition probability was proposed. The main factors affecting the acquisition probability of the anti-ship missile seeker are analyzed and the distribution law is given, and the calculation model of the search range of the seeker is established. Based on this method, the acquisition probability of the anti-ship missile is analyzed, and the influence of each factor on the acquisition probability is analyzed. The simulation results show that the method can calculate the probability of anti-ship missile capturing the target simply and effectively, and can be applied to anti-ship missile performance analysis, hit evaluation and other occasions.