In view of the problem that the existing demand forecasting method can not better reflect the consumption law of long-endurance aviation materials of carrier-based aircraft in the open sea, the long-endurance long-life repairable aviation materials demand of carrier-based aircraft in the open sea is analyzed, and the system dynamics model of the carrying demand of long-life repairable aviation materials under the long-term support mode is constructed. Through the operation and simulation of the model, the carrying demand of life-repairable aviation materials is obtained, and the applicability and feasibility of the model are verified. The results show that the method has a high guidance value for the demand forecast of long-endurance repairable aviation materials for carrier-based aircraft.