基于标准差椭圆的兵棋推演态势动态分析
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1.陆军装甲兵学院演训中心;2.中国人民解放军66242部队

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E917

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Dynamic Analysis of Wargaming Situations Based on Standard Deviation Ellipse
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Army Academy of Armored Forces, Military Exercise and Training Center

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    摘要:

    针对兵棋推演中战场态势实体激增导致的重心识别、分布方向判断及控制区域评估难题,本研究提出基于加权标准差椭圆的空间分析方法,通过协方差矩阵特征分解量化部队动态特征。研究表明:标准差椭圆中心能够精准表征部队态势重心及其移动模式,椭圆中心间距变化与交战强度呈现显著关联;椭圆半长短轴与扁率可解析兵力分布形态,扁率越小表明部队方向性越强,扁率趋近圆形则反映分布均匀性特征;椭圆长轴方向与部队行动方向正相关,有效指示战术展开趋势;椭圆面积动态变化可排除异常棋子干扰,客观表征核心控制区域演化规律。该方法通过几何参数融合空间分布、方向特征及控制范围的多维信息,为兵棋推演提供了抗干扰性强、可解释度高的态势评估框架,对提升战场决策的科学性与时效性具有实践价值。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of identifying the center of gravity, determining distribution directions, and assessing control areas in wargaming simulations caused by the surge in battlefield entities, this study proposes a spatial analysis method based on weighted standard deviational ellipses (SDE), which quantifies dynamic troop characteristics through covariance matrix eigenvalue decomposition. Research findings demonstrate that: The SDE center precisely characterizes the situational center of gravity of troops and their movement patterns, with changes in inter-center distance between opposing forces showing significant correlations with engagement intensity; the semi-major/minor axes and ellipticity of the ellipse reveal troop distribution patterns, where lower ellipticity indicates stronger directional troop distribution, while near-circular ellipticity reflects uniform spatial dispersion; the orientation of the ellipse’s major axis is positively correlated with troop movement directions, effectively indicating tactical deployment trends; dynamic changes in ellipse area exclude interference from outlier entities such as forward reconnaissance units or rear guards, objectively characterizing the evolution of core control areas. By integrating multi-dimensional information encompassing spatial distribution, directional features, and control scope through geometric parameters, this method establishes an interference-resistant and interpretable situational assessment framework for wargaming simulations, offering practical value for enhancing the scientific rigor and timeliness of battlefield decision-making.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-07
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-10
  • 录用日期:2025-04-21
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